Concepts and Insights
A Collection of Posts and Thoughts around Resilience, Strategic Forecasting, Sensemaking and Related Issues.
These pages are work in progress and will be further expanded depending on time available and potential interest expressed by readers. Posts are presented in English only.
For optimal clarity and user experience, we recommend viewing these pages on a larger screen as many concepts are presented in the form of overviews.
Resilience
In a world increasingly characterized by uncertainty and escalating risks, the concept of ‘Resilience’ has become crucial. At its core, resilience is about enduring and adapting in the face of potential disruptions, shocks, and adverse trends.
We’ll unpack this further here under several headings.
Resilience; an Introduction
‘Resilience’ has become a buzzword echoed across various circles, from corporate boardrooms to the corridors of government. Politicians and leaders frequently invoke it to rally support and further their own agendas.
However, the term is often misused, becoming diluted and transformed into a catch-all phrase that can confuse and mislead more than it informs. This misuse can result in miscommunication and impede genuine efforts to build resilience.
It is essential to reclaim the true essence of resilience: the ability to endure and adapt to challenges. Resilience should not be reduced to a trendy slogan for political gain, nor should it serve as a generic label for any response to adversity. Clear understanding of what resilience truly embodies—and what it does not—is key to nurturing sustainability and fortitude across all levels of society.
Here a number of resources that explore the concept of Resilience, background for better understanding it, how it relates to some other key concepts, etc.
Household Resilience
Applying the principles of Resilience to individuals and households.
Organisational Resilience
Insights and thoughts on Organisational Resilience.
Strategic Foresight
Exploring the concept of Strategic Foresight and how it relates to Resilience.
Strategic Foresight for Organisational Resilience
To understand the systems, conditions, and dynamics of modern society necessitates an appreciation for the multiple interconnected layers that operate simultaneously. These layers are often interwoven within networks and may be partially or completely hidden from view.
These networks are shaped by a multitude of actors, each wielding unique abilities and perspectives. They operate across various timeframes, are motivated by distinct incentives, and embody diverse mindsets. Actors, ranging widely in visibility and real and perceived importance and leverage, may cooperate or compete, with some operating shrouded in secrecy.
As conditions constantly evolve, agents and systems adapt to the ever-shifting landscape. The inherent complexity of society means that much of its progression is unpredictable. Outcomes can propagate across different scales and over time, with seemingly isolated events converging to trigger cascading effects.
In essence, attempting to forecast the future is very challenging. Utilising Rumsfeld’s framework — no endorsement of the origin — there are ‘known knowns’, many ‘known unknowns’, and likely even more ‘unknown unknowns’. No person or organization will fully comprehend the entirety of this complex landscape and how it will evolve.
Yet, by peering beyond the surface, it is possible to identify critical elements that shed light on underlying currents. Through the strategic application of analytical frameworks and the development of informed assumptions, pivotal agents, their drivers, and systemic pressures can be identified. This allows for anticipating likely paths of development for conditions and dynamics.
Next, some of the elements that underpin the Strategic Foresight for Organisational Resilience approach.
Danish Proverb
“Prediction is difficult, especially when dealing with the future.”
Sensemaking
What Sensemaking is and how it relates to Resilience.
Sensemaking and Its Connection with Resilience
Sensemaking is how individuals and organisations interpret and create meaning from the complex realities they face. It involves gathering and analysing information, identifying patterns, and constructing narratives that make sense of events or situations. This process allows us to navigate uncertainty, make decisions, and form responses that align with our understanding of the world. As a dynamic and iterative process, sensemaking is a keystone for achieving situational awareness and informed strategic decision-making.
Sensemaking is technically only one part of a broader trajectory that begins in the ‘real world’, where people and organizations operate, and ends with their actions and behaviours. For our purposes, we will address the entire journey as ‘Sensemaking.’
Effective sensemaking is essential for building Resilience and enhancing Strategic Foresight. Inadequate sensemaking weakens these capacities.
At Resilience Reclaimed, we believe that the practice of collective sensemaking has become fundamentally flawed in the West. Without robust individual and collective sensemaking processes, society becomes disjointed and directionless. Resilience Reclaimed aims to contribute to the discussion on how to regain solid footing regarding sensemaking.
Mark Twain
“It’s no wonder that truth is stranger than fiction. Fiction has to make sense.”
Miscellaneous
A collection of posts with relevance to issues mentioned above.